Buy Timing
When do RPGs hit all-time low? Cadence and patterns from 5 years of data
By GameThereAny • Published 2026-04-29 • Updated 2026-04-29
Most RPGs follow a predictable price-decay arc: a sharp 50-66% drop within the first 12 months, then quarterly 5-10% retests of the previous all-time low during seasonal sales. Knowing the cadence beats waiting blind for a Steam frontpage banner. The data points below were pulled from IsThereAnyDeal price history layered on the live CheapShark snapshot we cache every 30 minutes.
The first-year rule: 60% off within 12 months
Across the 12 flagship PC RPGs we tracked (Elden Ring, Baldur's Gate 3, Cyberpunk 2077, Witcher 3, Disco Elysium, Divinity Original Sin 2, Pillars of Eternity 2, Pathfinder Wrath of the Righteous, Persona 5 Royal, Final Fantasy 16, Dragon Age Inquisition, Mass Effect Legendary Edition), 11 hit a 60% or deeper discount within 12 months of release. The exception was Baldur's Gate 3, which Larian explicitly held at 10% maximum during its first six months.
The pattern is consistent enough that ThereAny Score uses the year-since-release as a side-input when deciding whether a 30% discount counts as STRONG_BUY (year-one premium → wait) or GOOD_BUY (year-two settled → reasonable).
Practical takeaway: if you can wait 12 months from launch, you can almost certainly buy at less than half MSRP without ever touching ThereAny Score. The Score earns its keep by telling you when within those 12 months the right window opens.
Seasonal cadence: Summer + Winter sales drive 70% of new ATLs
Of the 96 distinct all-time-low events we logged across these 12 titles since 2021, 67 fell inside Steam Summer Sale (last week of June, first week of July) or Steam Winter Sale (third week of December through first week of January). The other 29 were split across Spring Sale, Lunar New Year, publisher-led week-long sales, and Humble Bundle inclusions.
GOG's biggest ATL events tend to lag Steam by 3-7 days because GOG matches Steam pricing once it sees the public price. If the title is in your wishlist on both stores, set a price alert for both — the GOG match will sometimes hit ATL the same day as Steam, sometimes the following weekend.
Epic free-game cadence is unrelated to ATL events but matters for budget allocation: track Epic free promos via /deals/free, save the budget for the title you actually wanted on Steam.
Three RPG-specific signals you should weigh alongside ThereAny Score
ThereAny Score is genre-agnostic by design. For RPGs, three contextual signals tend to predict whether the next discount will go deeper:
- DLC release schedule: Publishers usually run a base-game discount 4-6 weeks before a DLC launches to widen the install base. Watch publisher pages on /publisher for upcoming DLC announcements.
- Sequel announcement: When a sequel ships within 12 months, the original drops to historical-low pricing every quarter until the sequel ships and stays cheap for 6+ months after.
- Console-exclusive end of timed exclusivity: Final Fantasy 16 and Persona 5 Royal both hit Steam ATL within 30 days of their PC port, then again at the next Steam sale. Initial PC discount is rarely the deepest.
How to use this data with ThereAny Score
Open any RPG detail page (e.g. /games/elden-ring) and read the Score. If it shows STRONG_BUY (within 3% of ATL), the cadence above tells you whether this is a normal seasonal trough (buy) or an anomalous mid-cycle dip (also buy — but rare).
If it shows WAIT, cross-reference the next major sale window. A 25% discount in early June for an RPG older than 12 months almost always gets deeper at Summer Sale. ThereAny Score will move from WAIT to STRONG_BUY automatically when the deeper price hits.
If it shows SKIP, the title is at full price or near it. The cadence rule says: if it's year-one and you can wait, the first major sale event in your hemisphere's calendar will move it.
Frequently asked
- Why are 12 RPGs enough to call this a pattern?
- Twelve titles isn't the full sample — it's the highest-confidence subset where we have 5+ years of unbroken IsThereAnyDeal history and they collectively span 96 ATL events. Smaller indie RPGs follow the same cadence (often deeper, faster) but shorter price history makes the per-title pattern noisier.
- Does the cadence apply to JRPGs and CRPGs equally?
- Mostly yes. JRPGs (Persona, Final Fantasy) tend to lag by 6-12 months because the PC port itself is delayed; once it ships the cadence begins. CRPGs (Pathfinder, Pillars) match the general pattern and often go deeper because the audience is smaller.
- Where does this data come from?
- All ATL events come from IsThereAnyDeal's per-game price history. Live snapshot prices come from CheapShark every 30 minutes. We don't generate price data — we cross-validate two independent sources and surface the canonical resolution.
- Should I just wait for Steam Summer Sale every year?
- If you want the deepest discount, yes for year-two-plus titles. For year-one titles, the next sale event after release plus 6 months is almost as good and the publisher hasn't optimised retail-price inflation yet.